By Lawrence J Hubert; Howard Wainer
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Extra resources for A statistical guide for the ethically perplexed
This is the procedure we recommend. (p. 2 A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed The Probabilistic Generalizations of Logical Fallacies Are No Longer Fallacies It is the peculiar and perpetual error of the human understanding to be more moved and excited by affirmatives than by negatives. — Francis Bacon (Novum Organum, Aphorism 46, 1620) In our roles as instructors in beginning statistics, we commonly introduce some simple logical considerations early on that revolve around the usual “if p, then q” statements, where p and q are two propositions.
Francis Bacon (Novum Organum, Aphorism 46, 1620) In our roles as instructors in beginning statistics, we commonly introduce some simple logical considerations early on that revolve around the usual “if p, then q” statements, where p and q are two propositions. ” However, there are two fallacies awaiting the unsuspecting: denying the antecedent: if not p, then not q (if “the animal is not a Yellow Labrador Retriever,” then “the animal is not in the order Carnivora”); affirming the consequent: if q, then p (if “the animal is in the order Carnivora,” then “the animal is a Yellow Labrador Retriever”).
Second, a true DNA match 28 A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed usually provides strong evidence that the suspect who matches is indeed the source of the trace, although the match may be coincidental. Finally, a suspect who actually is the source of the trace may not be the perpetrator of the crime. The suspect may have left the trace innocently either before or after the crime was committed. In general, the concerns that arise at each phase of the chain of inferences are cumulative.